The System Development business area covers ENTSOG activities related to scenario development, investment planning and infrastructure assessment for the EU energy system. The main deliverables are short and medium to long-term assessments such as the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) and Supply Outlooks. In 2017, the System Development area published the final TYNDP 2017, the first Union-wide Security of Supply Simulation report and the draft 2nd CBA methodology.
All activities within the System Development Area are managed via the Investment Working Group (INV WG) and supplemented by a number of Kernel Groups (KGs) with more specialised tasks.
The INV WG is responsible for developing regulatory deliverables: the Union-wide Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), the Winter and Summer Outlooks and the update to the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) methodology. It is also responsible for deliverables that ENTSOG is developing on a voluntary basis in line with its Annual Work Programme: Winter and Summer reviews, the Transmission Capacity Map and the System Development Map developed in collaboration with GIE.
The Working Group (WG) is supported in its mission by four Kernel Groups (KGs), each of which focus on specific areas:
- NeMo Kernel Group (NeMo KG): developing and enhancing ENTSOG’s modelling tool and performing the simulations for ENTSOG deliverables in accordance with defined scenarios.
- Supply & Demand Kernel Group (S & D KG): developing the supply and demand approaches for ENTSOG deliverables based on analysis of current situation and potential future trends. Particular focus is given to the analysis of data to increase understanding of supply and demand developments, identify trends and outline approaches to defining and studying future scenarios.
- Cost-Benefit Analysis Kernel Group (CBA KG): update of CBA methodology under the TEN-E Regulation.
- Editing Kernel Group: TYNDP editing, maintaining the terminology used and ensuring the stylistic consistency in reports.
Over 2017, the Working Group has also been supported by the ENTSOs joint Scenario Building Task Force, gathering experts from both electricity and gas TSOs, and tasked with developing joint scenarios for the electricity and gas TYNDPs.
Union-Wide Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017 (deliverable 1)
In December 2016 ENTSOG published the Draft TYNDP 2017 and opened the public consultation on the report until February 2017. Following the contribution received from stakeholders and taking on board the recommendations of the ACER Opinion published on 20 March, ENTSOG published the Final TYNDP 2017 report on 28 April.
TYNDP 2017 looks at the next twenty years in assessing the European supply adequacy and the resilience of the system. It identifies if and where investment gaps remain, and how submitted projects mitigate these gaps.
TYNDP 2017 confirms that the current gas infrastructure is close to achieving the infrastructure-related aims of the internal gas market. The gas network is highly interconnected across most of Europe. In the specific areas where persistent long-term investment needs are identified, the necessary projects are included in the TYNDP 2017 and their planned commissioning timeline and potential benefits are presented in the report.
ENTSOG is committed to the continued improvement of the TYNDP and has taken the feedback received from both ACER and the stakeholders and incorporated elements that could be addressed in the final TYNDP 2017 publication. This is largely represented in a brand-new feedback section within the main TYNDP report, but TYNDP 2017 also includes additional or more complete annexes including more information on the projects, the TYNDP map, the Gas Quality Outlook and stakeholders feedback. All feedback will be taken into consideration for future editions of the TYNDP, with some input already fed into the relevant processes.
The European gas infrastructure shows high resilience and is well equipped to support Europe in achieving its energy and climate ambitions. It benefits from large storage capacities, high cross-border energy transmission and peak-demand management capabilities. Its integration with the electricity, heat and mobility infrastructure will support the energy transition and contribute to the decarbonisation of the European energy system.
Seasonal Supply Outlooks and Reviews (deliverables 2 & 3)
The objective of the Supply Outlooks is to assess the flexibility offered by gas infrastructures for each of the oncoming Summer and Winter seasons by taking into account the latest supply and demand trends, which are shown in the correspondent Reviews.
Summer Supply Outlook focuses on the ability of the gas infrastructure to allow market participants to reach high storage levels at the end of the summer gas season based on the actual storage levels at the beginning of the injection time horizon. The analysis is completed through the use of sensitivities targeting different stock levels under different supply situations.
Summer Supply Outlook 2017 identified the European Gas network as sufficiently robust to enable enough stock level in preparation for the winter and flexibility for the supply strategy of the network users.
Winter Supply Outlook explores the evolution of the underground storage inventories across the winter gas season while ensuring the supply-and-demand balance during specific high-demand situations. The robustness of the report is complemented by a sensitivity analysis on the different climatic profiles of the winter. The resilience to potential transit disruptions through Ukraine was this year assessed in the Union-wide SoS simulation report (Deliverable 8) published shortly after the Winter Supply Outlook 2017 / 18.
Winter Supply Outlook 2017/18: 1-day Design Case during Cold Winter
The results of the analysis indicate that the European gas system offers sufficient flexibility across the winter season in Europe, even in the case of high demand during an extremely cold winter. One of the report’s key findings is that the average storage level of 84 % on 1 October 2017 is close to its five-year minimum, and the report recommended that shippers would still ensure flexibility by further injecting before the Winter season.
ENTSOG and ENTSO-E cooperated on their Winter Outlooks, which allowed the ENTSO-E Winter Outlook to reflect the ability of the power system to cope with gas security-of-supply situations that may affect gas-fired generation. Both ENTSOs organised a common webinar on their Winter Outlooks on 1 December 2017.
Seasonal Reviews are an ENTSOG initiative based on the internal analysis of the supply-and- demand trends used to feed the TYNDP and Supply Outlooks. ENTSOG publishes these analyses in order to share the results with stakeholders.
These reviews establish the basis to define the input data and methodology of subsequent reports. In addition to the focus on the supply-and-demand balance, the reviews go further by analysing the trend of the gas demand for power generation as well as of providing an insight on gas prices and traded quantities at the main European hubs.
Capacity Map 2017 and System Development Map 2016 / 17 (deliverable 4)
In 2017 ENTSOG continued the publication of its well-known maps, the Transmission Capacity Map 2017 and the System Development Map 2016 / 17, the latter in collaboration with GIE.
The Transmission Capacity Map provides an overview of Europe’s main high-pressure transmission lines with information on the technical capacities at cross-border interconnection points. The 2017 edition was published in July.
The System Development Map produced in collaboration with GIE focuses on supply and demand trends from April 2016 to March 2017. The 2016 / 17 edition was published in November.
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ENTSO-E / ENTSOG Interlinked Model (deliverable 5)
In line with Regulation (EU) 347 / 2013, the ENTSOs have submitted the draft version of their consistent and interlinked electricity and gas network and market model (the Interlinked Model) to the Commission and ACER on 21 December 2016, and ACER has issued its opinion on 20 March 2017. Currently, the Interlinked Model is with the Commission for their formal opinion.
It is important to highlight that the ENTSOs have already implemented the joint scenario building process described in the draft Interlinked Model starting with TYNDPs 2018 and will continue to do so in the subsequent TYNDP editions.
The ENTSOs acknowledge that ACER’s opinion points out additional potential interlinkages that are not part of the draft Interlinked Model as submitted in December 2016. In line with ACER suggestions the ENTSOs are prepared to investigate other possible interlinks and their relevance to infrastructure development. The ENTSOs met ACER and EC and made proposals on possible ways forward and plan to launch a focus study on the interlinkages between gas and electricity.
The ENTSOs will build on the outcomes of the study to prepare the adapted version of their Interlinked Model for EC approval in view of implementation starting from TYNDP 2020.
ENTSO-E / ENTSOG Joint TYNDP 2018 Scenario Report (deliverable 6.1)
Scenario building is the very first step in developing TYNDP. For TYNDP 2018 it started already in 2016. With TYNDP 2018 ENTSOG decided to adapt its labelling rule, based on an earlier development timeline compared to previous editions and on its closer collaboration with ENTSO-E. ENTSOG TYNDP is now labelled as ENTSO-E’s based on its publication year, which explains that TYNDP 2018 follows TYNDP 2017, although TYNDP remains a one in two years exercise.
ENTSOG and ENTSO-E published their draft joint TYNDP 2018 Scenario Report on 2 October 2017 and launched a public consultation on the document that ran until 10 November 2017. The ENTSOs took on board the feedback received to adapt the report and published their Final Scenario Report on 20 March 2018.
Following their work engaged in 2016 on a consistent and interlinked model, ENTSOG, together with ENTSO-E, have joined efforts to develop for the first time a common set of scenarios, building on their combined expertise and modelling capabilities as well as on the input received from dozens of stakeholders from the industry, NGOs, National Regulatory Authorities and Member States. This co-development approach results in a set of ambitious, technically robust and equally realistic scenarios.
The joint scenarios outline three markedly different possible paths towards a low-carbon energy system in line with EU targets. They build on innovative and challenging storylines and are complemented by an additional perspective based on the EC EUCO 30 policy scenario. The TYNDPs will next assess the electricity and gas infrastructure development requirements needed for realising the benefits of meeting ambitious EU goals.
The TYNDP 2018 scenarios for 2030 and 2040 are defined by three storylines:
Draft TYNDP 2018 Practical Implementation Document (deliverable 6.2)
The scenario building framework for the TYNDP 2018.
Renewable Energy Systems (RES) share of demand for electricity and gas
Following the European Commission’s recommendation on “Guidelines on equal treatment and transparency criteria to be applied by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG when developing their TYNDPs” as set out in Annex III 2 (5) of Regulation (EU) No 347 / 2013, ENTSOG elaborated its “Practical Implementation Document (PID) for developing the 10-year network development plan (TYNDP) 2018”.
Starting with the TYNDP 2018 edition, the projects submitted to TYNDP will in fact need to comply with specific administrative and technical criteria for inclusion of project, as defined in the ENTSOG PID.
On 23 November 2017, ENTSOG hosted a workshop on the published draft ENTSOG PID. The aim of the workshop was to get views on the draft Guidelines for inclusion of projects in TYNDP, as well as to inform the participants of the main improvements and the timeline related to the TYNDP 2018 Project Collection.
Update of the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Methodology (deliverable 7)
The first CBA methodology was approved by Commission in 2015. It was applied to develop TYNDP 2015 and TYNDP 2017, and therefore supported the 2nd and 3rd PCI selection process.
Based on the experience and feedback collected, ENTSOG has engaged in developing the 2nd CBA methodology, in line with Article 11 (6) of Regulation (EU) 347 / 2013, in view of applying it to TYNDP 2018.
Early in 2017, ENTSOG organised meetings with a Prime Movers group (composed by relevant stakeholders and institutions) to identify the most requested improvements for ENTSOG CBA methodology. Following the feedback ENTSOG prepared an extended public consultation from 19 May to 16 June 2017. The feedback received was published on the ENTSOG website and the public consultation was complemented by a webinar, held on 31 May.
The draft 2nd CBA Methodology was published and submitted to ACER and EC for their opinions on 24 July 2017. The draft includes concrete and significant improvements in terms of simplification and transparency. Cost-benefit analysis of projects in the TYNDP for projects intending to apply for the PCI status are proposed to be included and to be published directly in the TYNDP. Additionally, in view of the Adapted Methodology ENTSOG further investigated the possibility to enhance the market modelling, in particular with the inclusion of infrastructure tariffs in the modelling assumptions, in line with stakeholders’ request. ENTSOG worked further in view of the preparation of the Adapted version of the CBA Methodology, based in particular on ACER opinion received on 24 October 2017 and the draft recommendation from the EC Gas CBA study carried out by Florence School of Regulation and Deloitte and published on 10 March 2017.
The Adapted CBA methodology will be applied to TYNDP 2018 once approved by EC, whose timely approval is expected for summer 2018.
Union-wide Security of Supply Simulation report (deliverable 8)
ENTSOG published its first Security of Supply report on 21 November 2017, which includes 17 gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios defined in cooperation with the EU Gas Coordination Group. The report has been presented to the Gas Coordination Group (GCG) on 9 November 2017.
The simulation has been performed within the framework of the recently entered into force Security of Supply Regulation (EC) 2017/1938 and has to be done every fourth year. It builds on the supply corridors concept, identifying how Member States can support each other along these corridors in case of disruption events. It subsequently intends to support Competent Authorities in preparing their regional risk assessments.
ENTSOG and the GCG members collaborated throughout the process to define the simulation methodology and 17 scenarios. The scenarios cover the eleven risk groups of countries defined by Regulation (EC) 2017/1938 along the main gas supply corridors.
The report confirms that the overall European gas system is resilient and can support regional cooperation. A limited number of scenarios still indicate local infrastructure limitations that could hamper cooperation. Most of these limitations are already identified in previous assessments.
Supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios:
Support to Gas Coordination Group
The Gas Coordination Group (GCG) is a platform established by Regulation (EU) 944 / 2010 that introduces measures of safeguarding the security of gas supply.
The role of the Gas Coordination Group (GCG) is to exchange information and best practices, and to facilitate Security of Supply (SoS) standards and to support supply-and-demand balance especially in case of critical situations. Members include the European Commission, representatives of EU Member States, ENTSOG, and other international organisations as well as the industry.
In relation to the Union-wide simulation of supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios ENTSOG has the task towards the GCG to propose the most meaningful scenarios and further on submitting the simulation results to the GCG.
Additionally, Seasonal Outlooks continue contributing to support the Gas Coordination Group on a more regular basis.
Support to Regional Groups
ENTSOG has brought its constant support to the Regional Groups in the third process of selecting projects of common interest (PCI). ENTSOG actively engaged, in 2017 as previously in 2016, in providing its technical support to the Regional Groups, in particular through its technical contribution to the activities of the Cooperation Platform, composed of the European Commission, ACER and the ENTSOs and meant at streamlining the work of Regional Groups.
TYNDP 2017, published in December 2016, played a key role in the 3rd PCI selection process initiated by the European Commision.
In 2017, ENTSOG has provided further support to the PCI selection process. It has closely cooperated with the European Commission in configuring and offering its technical platform – the ENTSOG Project Portal – to perform the call for PCI projects. And additionally, upon formal invitation by the European Commission, and under the mandate of project promoters, ENTSOG handled and delivered to PCI candidates promoters the modelling of their project-specific CBAs. ENTSOG also provided support to all promoters in the submission of their project-specific CBAs to the European Commission and the Regional Groups.
Support to Gas Regional Investment Plans
Establishment of Gas Regional Investment Plans (GRIPs) is a requirement under Art 12 (1) of Regulation (EC) 715 / 2009. These GRIPs are developed by member TSOs under the umbrella of ENTSOG. These plans help to coordinate activities between neighbouring TSOs and provide support for further infrastructure development wherever necessary. GRIPs serve as a link between TYNDP and national plans.
The third editions of GRIP reports have been developed jointly with TYNDP 2017. This ensures the use of a common dataset for GRIPs and TYNDP and complementarity between the reports.
For the GRIPs published in spring and summer 2017, ENTSOG handled a joint TYNDP 2017 and GRIPs data collection and centralisation of data processing, ensuring the full consistency between GRIPs and TYNDP. Additionally, ENTSOG performed the modelling of all the GRIPs, building on its European-wide gas system modelling, and performing a large variety of GRIP-specific simulations based on TSOs expertise to best reflect regional specificities.